Where Did All The Ducks Go?

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Today we're talking ducks. Or more specifically — where the hell did they go?

I've been driving these backroads around Galveston Bay and Houston, up and down 71 and 290 all winter. No ducks in the fields. No big rafts on the bays like we used to see. Hunts have been tough the last couple seasons, and you're not alone if you're feeling it.

Let's break it down — the numbers, the real reasons migration is changing, and what we can actually do about it.

The Big Picture — What the Data Actually Says

Let's start with facts, not just griping.

The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service dropped their 2025 breeding population report last fall. Total breeding ducks in the traditional northern survey area? About 34 million. Flat from 2024 and only 4% below the long-term average going back to the 1950s. Not a crash. Mallards steady around 6.6 million. Pintails up a bit to 2.2 million but still 41% below average. Pond counts down 19% to 4.2 million — the lowest since 2004 — dry prairies hurt production, so fewer young birds in the fall flight.

Texas Parks and Wildlife said the 2025-2026 season looked favorable — plentiful teal, gadwalls, wigeon, pintails, and redheads, with summer rains helping stock things up. Louisiana's aerial surveys showed November 2025 coastal counts hit 1.238 million ducks — 143% higher than the rock-bottom November 2024. December jumped to about 1.66 million. Ringnecks exploded, shovelers and gadwalls strong, black-bellied whistling ducks way up.

On paper, it sounds okay. But if you're hunting the Texas coast — driving FM roads, scouting bays — it doesn't feel that way. Birds are showing up in spots, but not as far south and not in the numbers or places we expect.

The migration has shifted northward. That's the real story.

Why the Migration is Changing

Ducks aren't vanishing — they're wintering farther north than before.

Warmer winters mean northern ponds, lakes, and fields stay ice-free longer. Food is accessible up there, so why burn energy flying 800 to 1,000 miles south to the Gulf when you don't have to?

Crop changes are huge too. Our coastal rice fields used to be duck magnets — flooded stubble providing massive amounts of waste grain, accounting for up to 40 to 44% of the energy for wintering dabblers in some years. But Texas Mid-Coast rice acreage has crashed from over 600,000 acres historically to a fraction of that. Louisiana's coastal prairie rice is down significantly as well. Modern combines are efficient — they leave almost no spilled grain, roughly 90% less food per acre compared to the 1980s. No rice fields means no flooded fields packed with ducks.

Northern corn expansion helps birds stay closer to their breeding grounds — easy calories in grain fields all the way up into Canada, especially when there's no hard freeze to drive them out.

Flooded Standing Corn — The Practice That Has Southern Hunters Fired Up

One specific practice has become a lightning rod in this debate: flooded standing corn, also called hot cropping.

Here's how it works. Farmers or hunters flood unharvested corn fields — standing stalks with ears still full of kernels. It's high-energy food, good cover, and makes great roosts. Ducks pile in and feed heavily. It's exploded in Mississippi Flyway states like Missouri, Illinois, Arkansas, and Tennessee.

It's legal under current U.S. Fish and Wildlife rules. Back in 1998, the Migratory Bird Treaty Reform Act and the 1999 final rules clarified that you can hunt over standing crops or flooded standing crops as part of normal agricultural practices. That change opened the door to intentional flooding for hunting without it being classified as baiting.

Southern hunters — a lot of us in Texas and Louisiana — say this is short-stopping migration. Ducks get fat and happy up north with no need to push south to our rice fields or coastal marshes. Mild winters plus endless corn equals birds that hold up longer and farther north.

Senator John Kennedy from Louisiana went hard after this. On January 6, 2026, he sent a letter to USFWS Director Brian Nesvik calling it "legal baiting" and an "unsportsmanlike practice." His argument: unlike rice, which is flooded for crop growth, there is no real agronomical reason to flood standing corn — only to attract ducks. The 1999 rule change removed the enforcement that used to restrict this kind of intentional flooding.

He cited hard numbers. Louisiana mallard harvest dropped 95% from 1999 to 2021 — the biggest decline in the Mississippi Flyway. In Missouri, mallard counts rose from 280,000 in 1999 to 550,000 in 2016. Data shows mallards concentrating and holding where flooded corn is widespread, often feeding nocturnally to avoid hunting pressure. Kennedy wants a formal USFWS study on how the practice affects migratory behavior, wintering distributions, harvest patterns, economic impacts to southern communities — guides, outfitters, locals — and even avian flu risks from birds crowding up in concentrated areas.

That letter blew up. Covered by Wildfowl Magazine, Outdoor Life, Realtree, Mossy Oak. Southern hunters are cheering — finally someone calling out how northern outfitters and private lands are holding birds that used to be shared across the entire flyway. What was once a public resource increasingly feels privatized for commercial operations up north.

The pushback from northern hunters and some biologists: it's a legal agricultural practice, not baiting. Migration is mostly weather-driven — ice and snow push birds south, not food. Flooded corn is a tiny percentage of total corn acreage. They point to warmer winters, climate change, and the rice field decline as the primary culprits.

But studies show dabblers like mallards are using flooded corn heavily — often nocturnally to avoid pressure — which keeps them holding in place. This is why I'm driving around and not seeing ducks. Many of them are stacking in Missouri or Arkansas corn fields instead. One good cold front brings a push south, then quiet again.

What About Heated Ponds and Ice Eaters?

You'll hear people talk about bubblers and ice eaters up in the Midwest — agitators that churn warmer bottom water to the surface to delay freeze-over on small ponds or flooded food plots. It's real. Some private duck clubs and outfitters run them to keep a hole open during cold snaps.

But let's be straight about the scale. A handful of bubblers on a few private acres isn't holding millions of ducks. Biologists and organizations like Ducks Unlimited point to naturally warmer winters as the main factor keeping northern water open. Those private setups might help a local club hold birds a bit longer, but weather is the big driver. Still — when you're not seeing ducks out your truck window all winter, it's hard not to think about every advantage northern operations have that shortens the migration for us.

What's Happening on the Texas Coast

It's frustrating. We grew up with black skies over rice fields, epic bay rafts, birds piling into the marsh. Now it's spotty, and it feels unfair to Gulf Coast hunters who built their entire lives and livelihoods around this migration.

Storms are wiping away coastal marsh. Texas ag fields are often dry without significant rainfall to flood them. The infrastructure that used to hold birds here — flooded rice, connected marsh, consistent habitat — has been shrinking for decades.

But there's still reason for optimism. Teal still come early and come strong. Gadwalls and ringnecks show up in good numbers when fronts push through. Ducks Unlimited and TPWD continue doing marsh restoration work and offer landowner incentives for flooded rice on private land. The birds aren't gone — the patterns have just changed and we have to adapt with them.

What You Can Actually Do

Support the habitat work. Join Ducks Unlimited and Delta Waterfowl — their habitat projects are the long game that actually moves the needle for southern hunters. If you've got lease land with the ability to flood it, do it. Even small flooded areas during migration windows make a difference.

Get behind Senator Kennedy's call for a formal USFWS study on flooded corn and short-stopping. We need real science and real data to drive policy, not just competing opinions from northern and southern hunter groups pointing fingers at each other. If the data shows flooded corn is meaningfully altering migration patterns and concentrating birds in ways that damage downstream hunting communities and resources — that's worth knowing and worth acting on.

The Bottom Line

Total duck numbers are stable. But the migration has shifted north — driven by warmer winters, the collapse of Gulf Coast rice agriculture, and flooded corn holding birds in the Mississippi Flyway states longer than they used to stay.

It's changing the game for southern hunters in a real way. We adapt, push for better habitat and fair policies, and support the science that can tell us what's actually happening.

I want to hear from you — did you see birds this past season? Do you think flooded corn has changed migration where you hunt? Bring it all to the Texas Fish and Game Network.

Thanks for listening to Texas Fish and Game Unfiltered. If you like the show, please share it, rate it, and bring a buddy to the network. Until next time — get outdoors and find your peace.